Scott Miller's October 2011 Newsletter


Real-estate calendar

FIABCI/AREAA/CREDAA Real Estate Networking Happy Hour

O’Asian

800 5th Ave # 1
Seattle, WA 98104-3176

October 25, 2011

Time: 4:00 pm – 7:00 pm

Limited to the first 50 people

RSVP : cheryl.mcivor@markoagroup.com

Join FIABCI International Real Estate Federation, AREAA (Asian Real Estate Association of America), and CREDAA (Commercial Real Estate Distressed Assets Association) at our upcoming Happy Hour networking event.

The event will be held at O’Asian in Downtown Seattle from 4 pm to 7 pm.

All professionals, colleagues, friends, and anyone looking to connect are welcome! If you plan to attend, please email me a quick RSVP to cheryl.mcivor@markoagroup.com. Thank you!

Come. Meet. Participate. Connect!

_________________________________________________________________________________

“Doing Business in Latin America--Challenges and Trends.”

Event Details:

Title: Doing Business in Latin America-Challenges and Trends

Date: Friday, October 21st, 2011

Time: 10:00 a.m. CST

Duration: 60 minutes

Cost: Free

Speakers:

Martin Castro (Moderator), Legal Manager, Bridgestone Argentina

Luis F. Ortega, Senior Manager, Deloitte Financial Advisory Services

Rodolfo Rivera, Regional Counsel, FNF Title International

To Register:

Email Mary Clodfelter at Mclodfelter@fnf.com or call 314-313-7788

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Los Angeles: Wednesday, October 19

National University: 5245 Pacific Concourse Drive, Los Angeles, CA 90045

Inland Empire: Thursday, October 20

National University: 3800 East Concours Drive, Ontario, CA 91764


Orange County: Thursday, November 17

National University: 3390 Harbor Boulevard, Costa Mesa, CA 92626

Local

Seahawk stadium parking lot development dispute ends

A resolved dispute over parking spaces means construction could begin as soon as next week on redeveloping the parking lot north of Seattle’s CenturyLink Field.

What does a $2M loft-condo in Seattle look like?

Though the nation’s housing market remains weak, certain people in certain cities still demand luxury — even minimalist luxury.

JLL Adds Pacific Real Estate Partners To Expand in Seattle, Portland

Jones Lang LaSalle gained significant market share in the Pacific Northwest this week, executing a long-rumored merger with Pacific Real Estate Partners (PREP) that expand JLL’s Seattle presence and establishes a beachhead in Portland.

Saint Croix Apartments Sell for $23.7M

GE Capital Real Estate sold the 264,000-square-foot Saint Croix apartment complex located at 1901 SW 320th St. in Federal Way, WA to Hamilton Zanze & Company for $23.65 million, or about $79,000 per unit. The REO sale marks the fifth property that Hamilton Zanze & Company has purchased from GE Capital Real Estate in the past year.

Fauntleroy Place site sold for $32M

An entity linked to Kirkland-based Madison Development paid $32.3 million for the mothballed Fauntleroy Place construction project at a foreclosure auction Friday morning, the West Seattle Herald’s Ty Swenson reports.

Tacoma's Reed family No. 9 on list of largest US landowners

The Reed family of Tacoma, which owns 770,000 acres in Washington state, is the ninth-largest landowner in the country.

Lowe's closing Tacoma store, 19 others in U.S.

Lowe's Cos. Inc Lowe's Cos. Inc Latest from The Business Journals Lowe's closing 20 stores, cutting 2,000 jobsLowe's closures includes one Twin Cities locationLowe's closing 20 stores Follow this company . says it is closing 20 underperforming stores in the U.S., including one in Tacoma.

New acting Seattle manager at Marcus & Millichap

Encino, Calif.-based Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services Latest from The Business Journals High-end apartment sites selling in JacksonvilleMiami firm buys Groveland shops for .1MDone deals: Signature Place commercial space sold Follow this company has tapped Justin White to be the acting regional manager of the firm’s Seattle office, following the departure last month of longtime head Greg Wendelken.

Amazon-fueled building boom in Seattle's S. Lake Union not over

Developers are moving forward with more building plans near Amazon.com Amazon.com Latest from The Business Journals DBJ Tech Watch for Monday 10/17: News of Apple, Facebook, SpaceX vs. ULA and moreGoogle to challenge Apple, Amazon with music store?Amazon bypasses publishers and signs up authors Follow this company ’s new corporate campus, with one new building that might be slated for the e-commerce giant.

National

U.S. Home Prices Post Seasonal Rise

U.S. home prices rose for a fourth consecutive month in July but remain down from last year, according to Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller home-price indexes, as the housing market continues to struggle.

Rents Not Low on City High Streets

In picking a site for its flagship store, Japanese clothing company Uniqlo could have pushed for lucrative concessions from virtually any of the hard-up retail landlords littering Manhattan. Instead, the company opted last year for a premier slot on Fifth Avenue in a $300 million lease that was one of the most expensive ever at the time.

Pritzker Heir Sets Hotel-Firm Merger

Pritzker family heir John Pritzker and New York's Pomeranc family have combined their hotel businesses into a single operator of hotels ranging from West Coast boutiques to East Coast luxury hotels.

Goldman Treads Water in Real Estate

More than a decade ago, Goldman signed a 20-year lease to occupy a 26-story office building on Water Street, part of Manhattan's Financial District. But shortly after agreeing to the deal, the financial-services firm decided not to move in and was saddled with paying rent on the empty building.

Colony Capital: Time To Build Liquidity

Likening the current economy to a muddy racetrack, Thomas J. Barrack, Jr., founder and chairman of Colony Capital in his latest blog posting on the Colony Capital web site, tells investors that now is the time to watch their step as he believes inevitable opportunities are coming as other investors slip and start shedding their bad bets.

Rating Firms' Asset Game

As the housing market buckled in mid-2007, the credit-rating industry's three biggest firms gave top grades to mortgage-linked bonds that soon plummeted in value.

Offices Make Slow Recovery

Companies leased slightly more office space in the third quarter, but the rate of expansion slowed during the period, according to a report by real-estate research firm Reis Inc……

Investors Check Out of Real-Estate Stocks

For much of the past two years, real-estate stocks outperformed the broader stock market. But that trend ended during the fall as investors grew increasingly fretful that a weak global economy would sap demand for commercial space.

Cole, RED Seeing Black in Value-Add Retail

Cole Real Estate Investments formed a joint venture with RED Development to focus on future acquisition opportunities, recapitalizations and note purchases in the retail real estate sector.

U.S. Gambles With Mortgage Retreat

Three years after virtually nationalizing the U.S. mortgage market, the government has embarked on a pullback to see whether private industry picks up the slack.

Cerberus, Innkeepers in Talks to Close Deal at Lower Price

NEW YORK—Cerberus Capital Management LP, which is being sued by Innkeepers USA Trust for backing out of a deal to buy most of Innkeepers' hotels, is now in advanced talks on a lower price for those properties, according to people familiar with the matter.

Innkeepers-Cerberus Trial Delayed

NEW YORK—Innkeepers USA Trust and Cerberus Capital Management LP continued negotiating a lower-priced deal for Innkeepers' hotels, pushing back until Wednesday the start of a trial over Cerberus's cancellation of a prior agreement to buy the properties for $1.12 billion.

Trump Bids to Buy Florida's Doral Resort

Donald Trump is eyeing a return to his traditional stomping ground: U.S. real estate.

Mr. Trump's company, which all but stopped investing its own money in large property deals in recent years, has signed an agreement to pay $170 million for a deluxe golf resort near Miami, according to people familiar with the matter. It would be its biggest U.S. real-estate investment since the recession, according to people familiar with the matter.

Group Manages to Pull Off Desert Flip in Arizona

A venture led by two real-estate investment firms has shown that it actually is possible to make money on land speculation in the Phoenix area.

Associated Estates Has an Appetite for Apartments

Turmoil in Europe and fears of a double-dip recession have persuaded some commercial real-estate investors to step to the sidelines.

U.S. Economy Trapped by Its Circle of Strife

Bursts of enthusiasm aren't uncommon in bear markets. But they should be watched with caution………

International

Mukesh Ambani new house Antilia built on disputed land?

Indian billionaire, Mukesh Ambani, the world’s ninth wealthiest man, might lose his most expensive house in Mumbai. Ambani's had moved to Antilia, which is a 27 storey house last year.

Las Vegas Sands Bullish on China

Michael Leven, president of Las Vegas Sands Corp., said Saturday that despite recent concerns among investors regarding China's economic future, the company hasn't observed any negative signals in its business in the Chinese gambling enclave of Macau.


Market held back by lack of prime assets

The top end of the market has enjoyed a rebound but interest has cooled in some territories. By Daniel Thomas

European property markets have seen something of a broad-based recovery since the end of the recession in 2009.

Bad Loans Burden Banesto

MADRID—In an indication that the credit crunch is intensifying in Spain, Banco Español de Credito Tuesday said its loan book contracted for three straight quarters as it reported an 83% drop in third-quarter net profit.

European Bank Buffers Offer Little Comfort

Just how much more capital European banks need is the subject of fierce debate, especially as France and Germany weigh the latest rescue plan for Europe. And Dexia's collapse shows that some measures of financial strength can paint misleading pictures of how much additional firepower is needed. ‪

Distressed

U.S. Bank Loan Workouts Help U.S. Avoid Global CRE Funding Gap

Money available to replace maturing debt over the next three years globally is coming up short - way short, according to new research from DTZ.

CMBS Delinquencies Also Edge Higher

Separately, in September, the delinquency rate for U.S. commercial real estate loans in CMBS inched up 4 basis points to 9.56%. The CMBS market has now seen its delinquency rate fall in three of the last five months, according to Trepp LLC.

Real Money: Lenders Letting REITs Play the Accordion/ Bank of Cascades Selling Off Distressed CRE Assets

in North Miami Beach closed a $575 million unsecured revolving credit facility that replaces its existing $400 million facility.

Cerberus, Innkeepers in Talks to Close Deal at Lower Price

NEW YORK—Cerberus Capital Management LP, which is being sued by Innkeepers USA Trust for backing out of a deal to buy most of Innkeepers' hotels, is now in advanced talks on a lower price for those properties, according to people familiar with the matter

European Bank Buffers Offer Little Comfort

Just how much more capital European banks need is the subject of fierce debate, especially as France and Germany weigh the latest rescue plan for Europe. And Dexia's collapse shows that some measures of financial strength can paint misleading pictures of how much additional firepower is needed. ‪

Housing Prices Unlikely to Recover Before 2020

Bank risk professionals have turned decidedly pessimistic in their outlook in the past quarter, reversing the growing optimism they expressed in late 2010 and early 2011.

U.S. Economy Trapped by Its Circle of Strife

Bursts of enthusiasm aren't uncommon in bear markets. But they should be watched with caution………

CMBS Market Improves: Liquidated Loans Up, Payoffs Up, Loss Severities Down

The balance of CMBS conduit loans liquidated in September jumped to $1.26 billion-an increase of almost 25% from the low August reading. At $1.26 billion, the volume is very close to the 12-month rolling average for the volume of loans liquidated each month, according to Trepp LLC.

Big Dollar Bank Failures May Have Peaked

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. this week projected that cost of FDIC-insured institution failures for the next five years would not match all of the estimated losses for banks that failed in 2010 alone.

RE Trends

Banks May Still Face Fraud, Municipal Lawsuits After Foreclosure Agreement

U.S. banks may still face state securities-fraud claims and municipal lawsuits over unpaid mortgage fees under a settlement that is “getting closer,” the official leading talks for state attorneys general said.

Goldman Is Sued Over Office Deal

A real-estate fund run by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has walked away from a $1.26 billion deal with Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. to buy a portfolio of 10 office buildings in a suburb of Washington, according to a lawsuit filed Thursday.

CRE Fundraising Plummets

Companies and funds reported raising $23.18 billion from investors in the third quarter for real estate-related deals and refinancings, a 35% drop from the second quarter when $35.48 billion was raised for real estate investment.

Home Forecast Calls for Pain

Economists, builders and mortgage analysts are predicting the weakened U.S. economy will depress housing prices for years, restraining consumer spending, pushing more homeowners into foreclosure and clouding prospects for a sustained recovery.

Home Resales Up, But Remain Weak

Sales of previously occupied homes in the U.S. rose in August to the highest level in five months but remained weak overall as the sputtering housing market fails to propel the economy.

Existing-home sales increased 7.7% from a month earlier to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.03 million, the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday.

Addressing Housing Troubles Will Speed a Slow Economy

There's not much the U.S. can do to prod Europe to clean up the sovereign debt and banking mess that threatens the global economy.

New Homes Again Log Slow Sales

New-home sales fell for the fourth-straight month in August to the lowest level in a half year as the bursting of the housing bubble continued to weigh on the U.S. economic recovery.

Sales fell 2.3% from a month earlier to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 295,000, the Commerce Department said Monday. The pace was the weakest in six months, and the month was the seventh-worst on records dating to 1963.

Housing Prices Unlikely to Recover Before 2020

Bank risk professionals have turned decidedly pessimistic in their outlook in the past quarter, reversing the growing optimism they expressed in late 2010 and early 2011.

Effective Multifamily Rent Growth Slows on Way to Historic Highs

Effective apartment rent growth (rent net of concessions) slowed somewhat during August, to a rate of 0.34%, according to Axiometrics Inc., a provider of data and analysis on the apartment market.

Dad's Legacy to Be Sold

Kal Zeff spent several decades building a Denver apartment empire. Now, more than six years after his death, his children are cashing out.

Battle Royal in Health-Care World

HCP Inc. recently sent a $102 million check to Ventas Inc. in what appeared to end a nasty four-year takeover and legal battle between the country's two largest public owners of medical office buildings, senior-living and other health-care-related real estate.

Economic Concerns Are Taking a Toll

In the latest sign that the commercial real-estate market is cooling, Green Street Advisors' Commercial Property Price Index was flat in September.

Host Leads Off in Lodging Earnings

Host Hotels & Resorts Inc. will kick off earnings season Wednesday for lodging real-estate investment trusts at a time that investors are checking out of these stocks en masse on recessionary fears.

Slim Pickings Are Latest Headache for Home Sales

The housing market, which has struggled with an oversupply of homes for years, is facing a new problem: a lack of attractive inventory.

C(RE) BLOGS

Scott Miller's Welcome to the Jungle Blog

Welcome to the jungle. The environment we are in these days feels like a jungle and you never know what is around the corner ready to hunt you down, kill you and then eat you. The housing market seems to be in free fall with no end in sight well at least until 2015 according to “The Wall Street Journal” Article

Home Forecast Calls for Pain on September 21, 2011. Since its peak in 2005 housing prices nationally have fallen 31.6% and fall another 2.5% this year and then start to rise 1.1% through 2015 according to survey of economists.

Scott Miller's Welcome to the Jungle Blog II

First the blame for the mess we are in is not only the banks fault. Politicians would love for you to blame the BIG BAD BANKS for all that lending of loans to people that could not afford their homes. Truth is most of those banks were filling a need. Now that does not excuse them from blame, but includes them into it with others.

"Internet Killed The Radio Store" - Mall Vacancies Hit All Time Record

Two years ago, when discussing the long-term prospects for Bill Ackman's aggressive pursuit of General Growth, we noted that while the short-term post-reorg oversold bounce is warranted, the secular shift away from big-box stores and disappearance of retailers means that many more bankruptcies are sure to follow, and will be punctuated by all time highs in mall vacancies courtesy of an ever-growing shift to internet shopping.

Lawler: For Seriously-Troubled Loans: A Call to ARMs

Many folks have for some strange reason argued that safe and effective loan modifications for troubled borrowers should get these borrowers into 30-year fixed-rate mortgages – even though short-term interest rates are close to zero, and expected to stay close to zero “until at least 2013.”

The Exasperation of the Democratic Billionaire

'It's as if he doesn't like people," says real-estate mogul and New York Daily News owner Mortimer Zuckerman of the president of the United States. Barack Obama doesn't seem to care for individuals, elaborates Mr. Zuckerman, though the president enjoys addressing millions of them on television.

CRE Podcasts

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CRE Distressed Assets Association Announces New CREDAA Central

Scott Miller's Welcome to the Jungle Blog Part II


First the blame for the mess we are in is not only the banks fault. Politicians would love for you to blame the BIG BAD BANKS for all that lending of loans to people that could not afford their homes. Truth is most of those banks were filling a need. Now that does not excuse them from blame, but includes them into it with others.

The Bond Holders now who are crying, that it is not fair that our foreclosure rate is so high and they were sold a bill of goods in what the assets could do back in the early part of the decade, could not get enough of these loans. They wanted more and when the banks could not fill their need they asked the banks to soften up their standards to fill those needs. Of course the foreclosure rate at that time was not as high as it is today and the more the banks opened the coffers the more money they made. This of course made their shareholders happy. Bond holders had their needs filled the banks were making money and the shareholders were receiving dividends.

What a great world right, but let’s not forget the rating firms that kind of …….well……..sold the bond holders a bill of goods too. Check out the article in The Wall Street Journal October 7, 2011 Rating Firms’ Asset Game. Here is a quote from the article “Standard & Poor's, however, typically evaluated each asset assembled into the securities rather than relying solely on the so-called worst-case scenario, according to current and former rating analysts. But that left the firm more dependent on fictitious "dummy" assets, which were placeholders used at the time of ratings and then replaced with other actual assets over time, those analysts say”……Dummy Assets for value?….mmmm……sounds a little fishy to me.

And who in their right mind would have thought that the laborer who made $50,000 a year would really be so irresponsible to go out and purchase a $800,000 home right. No they were not responsible for the down fall either.

Well we also could not blame the person who needed to upgrade their house because their neighbors just moved into this deluxe house with all the bells and whistles, and we better get in before we cannot afford a house. Then leverage it to the hilt and purchase 3 new cars also leveraged to the hilt to sit in their newly acquired house with the 3 car garage. Then, to make more sense, fill the house with financed to the hilt furniture for the 9 rooms they now found themselves having to fill. Yeah it was the banks sole fault.

But let’s not forget the government who tried to push EVERYBODY who was taking air through their lungs to be a homeowner. Yeah it was the banks fault. Well I think based on the above commentary you will agree maybe there was a bigger at fault then just the banks. Maybe we all had a little GREED going on and we are now paying the price. Alright so what do we do?

Scott Miller's Welcome to the Jungle Blog


Welcome to the jungle. The environment we are in these days feels like a jungle and you never know what is around the corner ready to hunt you down, kill you and then eat you. The housing market seems to be in free fall with no end in sight well at least until 2015 according to “The Wall Street Journal” Article Home Forecast Calls for Pain on September 21, 2011. Since its peak in 2005 housing prices nationally have fallen 31.6% and fall another 2.5% this year and then start to rise 1.1% through 2015 according to survey of economists.

However there is still the 9+% unemployment rate that seems to not go away and consumer confidence is dropping leaving me to believe that with 7 million plus homes in Shadow inventory about to be dumped onto the market that we may see a decline in housing for much longer.

To make matters more interesting, there are jobs available but people cannot get to those jobs. Homeowners are stuck in a home that is worth less than they owe so they cannot sell it. They also are not able to purchase a new home because they cannot qualify. One because they cannot sell their current home and they cannot rent it out as the competition in the market is valued so much less than their current homes value. This allows current purchased home to rent for less and for the upside down homeowner they would have to rent for less than their payment. Most people cannot afford that and their options are limited.

Their options are keep it and stay put, rent it and cover the difference if they can for the next 2 decades from now when the house appreciates to a point they can sell it, short sell it, or walk away from it. It seems the Fed would like us to refi as they buy the long end of the yield curve to drive 30 year mortgage rates to their lowest in 50 years. However, out of the 28 million mortgages 85% of these people are above 5.1% interest. Why? Either they cannot refinance because they are so far upside down or they do not make the income to support the old or new payments anymore, or they are just done playing the game and want to pay off their loans. Either way it is not helping to continue to buy the rates to all time lows for most people.

So I have a suggestion and it is not a popular one with a lot of people in my industry or in the political spectrum. Also the blame game is out of control of who created this mess. I will address my thoughts on this and then come up with what I feel is a solution to the problem in my next two blogs so stay tuned.